August 3rd- NOW WHAT? BULL OR BEAR?
There are only two valid counts left for either a continuation of this Bull Market from the March 2009 lows, or a new Bear Market that began in 1370 on the SP 500.
1. Bull Option: Most bullish counts have been eliminated in the past several weeks, but especially just in the last 8 trading days. We went from 1347 to 1250 in a hurry and that eliminated the bullish views I had leading up until then. The Elliott Wave patterns were still valid at 1347 for much higher levels to come until this recent downdraft or mini-crash.
Bull Option Left: There is only one valid count left, and that to me means we need to pivot around 1258 or 1223 as the two likely options of a major wave 4 ABC pattern correction off the 1370 highs. A drop to 1223 would be a 38% fibonacci retracement of the rally from July 2010 to the 1370 2011 highs. That would be a typical 4th wave retracement level, and would fit in with a continuing bull market structure. That option is outlined below in a chart:
Bear Option: Right now, a very valid Bear count shows 1370 as the end of an ABC rally from the March 09 lows. That ABC rally is called a “Zig Zag” pattern, where you have 5 waves up, 3 waves down, and 5 waves up to end it. In addition, at 1370 we hit resistance on the Bin Laden rally which hit the exact .786% retracement (FIbonacci ratio) of the 2007 highs to 2009 lows. Folks, this pattern is now looking the most likely after the recent 8 day drop. That pattern is outlined below in a chart as well.
We will have to let the market tell us, but if we get much below 1223 on the SP 500 then that Bear Count is virtually assured and we will want to be trading ETF’s mostly and reducing stock trades or only scalp trading quickly in and out.
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