PAST MARKET FORECASTS

Feb 22 am Nasdaq 100 Update after two-week rally

 Re the Nasdaq 100: Investors should be warned that the recent rise in the Nasdaq 100 has come on lighter and lighter volume, and the downdraft prior to this bounce was on higher and higher volume.  Conviction selling, not so much conviction buying…light volume buying in Nov-December, heavy volume selling in Jan, early Feb… and light volume upswing buying last few weeks.  These are “sleep with one eye open” indicators…

(Market peaked same day, began dropping hard Feb 23rd on large volume)


Feb 21st–   Predicted peak in Emerging Markets

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF)  has also been in the process of forming a “rounding top” pattern, which is very bearish.  Recently, EEM dropped from 43.xx to 36.xx and the EDZ strongly rallied to 7 ish.   We just saw a counter-trend 50% retracement bounce off that recent big drop..I expect EEM to roll over and head to 33 from about 39.38 here.  That is a 16% drop, resulting in a 48% gain in EDZ from current levels… the market should be within days of a top prior to another good correction, and EEM will likely drop worse than the big indices if so.

(EEM peaked on Feb 23rd, the next trading day and rolled over hard pushing EDZ over 7% higher on February 24th)


Jan 18th, 2010-  (Called a Market Top)

It appears we have the qualifications to have a potential top in since the March 2009 lows.  This is due to the rebound of the Dow to above my 10400 targets I put out in late February of 2009.  We have had a 61% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 highs to the 2009 lows. In addition, we have had about a 61% time period duration with an 11-month rally which followed a 17 odd month decline.  From the world in which I work, this means that the markets have fulfilled intermediate objectives for a top… there are times in the market to be aggressive on the long side, and times to be high in cash and sit back for awhile.  Right now, the evidence is to be more cautious and to have higher than normal cash balances while we wait for confirmation of market/wave patterns.

(Market peaked the next trading day and the Dow dropped over 800 points in the next few weeks)


August 3rd, 2009- Prepare for a Monster Move up in Gold/Gold Stocks

My chart patterns are displaying as I type, two huge bullish reversal indicators at the same time. I call this a convergence of sentiment shift indicators. A massive reverse head and shoulder pattern, complete with a current triangle pattern in gold is evident. These are huge warning signals to get long and soon… this first leg up in the five Fibonacci year bull run oughta be pretty profitable, well outpacing the other indexes….suggest you may want to overweight the sector soon.

(Gold ran from 920 to 1220 in 4 months, the HUI Gold index ran up 36% in 4 months)


Feb 25, 2009-  Called for a Market bottom and cyclical bull market on 321Gold

With the above said, I’d like to make a contrarian case that a multi-year cyclical bull market is now possible. This opinion is based on historical criteria normally associated with bear market bottoms, as well as my own formulations that I have added… The SP 500 index is perhaps the best barometer of all. This index has just gone through a “Fibonacci” eight-year cycle of peak to trough to peak to trough. Elliott wave analysts would call this an “A B C” corrective pattern. The 2008-09 lows are very close to the “A wave” 2002-2003 lows, and this forms a pretty clear chart pattern on a 10-year monthly chart. These human herd behavioral patterns Elliott identified as common to corrections, whether in the very short term or very long term… the patterns indicate a possible bottom in sentiment of the crowd and a signal to go long.
(Market bottomed on March 9th and rallied for 10 months)


Elliott Wave Analysis