Gold Still In Bear Cycle?

GOLD- Well, not a merry Christmas for Gold buyers just yet. We have said in our TMTF forecast service to watch 1190 as KEY support and 1241 would also need to be taken out on a closing basis before we could confirm a new uptrend in Gold and the end to the 5 wave bear cycle. Not quite yet, and in fact in my stock service we have avoided Gold stocks entirely even with the recent temptations to get long because Gold to us is key. If we are not over 1241 then we are not buyers of Gold equities, plain and simple. With 5000 stocks to choose from, why not stick with the sectors that are in the stronger uptrends and avoid those mired in the mud like Gold? For example you could be looking at Security stocks given all the cyber attacks worldwide that are only getting worse. Gold is money as we all know, but a downtrend is a downtrend. Trust what you see, not what you think for best results.

So right now the problem is we just gave up the 1190 support and the 30 week MA line on the weekly chart is your guide for key resistance to take out. We remain in the sidelines until its taken out. The chart below shows the blue line with the 30 week Moving average resistance, and you can use this same chart for the uptrend in the SP 500 which we have used recently for our subscribers as well. Don’t suffer from history bias and the hay days of Gold stocks and Gold, which ended in 2011…wait for the next Hay days to arrive, watch the 30 week moving average line before acting.

tmtf gold 1223

The SP 500 meanwhile is in wave 3 up from 1973 38% shallow wave 2 lows. That was a quick correction and the waves now are likely to be faster and shorter as we are in Primary wave 5 of this bull cycle, the last stages of the Bull if I’m right. 2131-2138 is your bogey ahead for first Fibonacci pivot resistance on the way to the 2181 target I had out over a month or so ago.

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What Now For The US Markets?

The markets have been in a rough and tumble recent period here with a 3.5% decline last week along with a further drop to the 1982 lows so far on Monday.  What is likely ahead?

Dave Banister- Chief Strategist- www.themarkettrendforecast.com

The SP 500 probably just completed the initial wave down of an ABC Correction from the 2079 highs.  We are counting this correction as a “Wave 2” of a full 5 wave sequence up from 1820 lows in October.  Essentially, Oil is the reason being used by the media for the correction but that is just the convenient headline excuse of the day.  Instead, what we will likely see is a Santa rally “B” wave ahead and then another leg down in January to complete this larger ABC move.

Elliott Wave theory is very hard to use to accurately forecast movements ahead of time, but we try our best to project, analyze, and then adjust as needed. Our best estimate is the 38% fibonacci retracement of the 259 point rally completed at 1982 today.  A “B Wave” rally up from here is normal and a C wave down to the 1920 area would complete a 61% retracement of that Wave 1 259 point rally.

tmtf sp 500 1215

 

 

Following the completion of a standard ABC Correction we should have a Wave 3 Bullish wave in early 2015 that will challenge the highs of 2079 and likely overtake them.  We do not like to get too far ahead of ourselves with the forecasts but we expect the excuse for that rally will be low energy prices and a strong consumer going into 2015.  Some of the obvious rally names for January will be energy stocks, but will need to be carefully selected.  Gold needs to get past 1241 on a closing basis before we get too bullish on those names, but we have them on watch as well.

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Feb 26th- Gold Due for Pullback Wave 2?

A pullback in Gold today to 1320’s from the 1348 high. We had been looking at about 1350 plus minus as an initial objective off the 1181 pivot lows for the truncated 5th wave of the bear cycle. We can see support at $1300 for spot Gold right now in the charts in terms of keeping it simple.
Now lets keep in mind we just rallied from 1181 to 1348, or about 167 points which is quite a rally. Indeed, February is often a short term cycle low for Gold and has been in years past.
A normal corrective wave 2 would be anywhere from 38% on the low end to 61% on the higher end as likely.
Using some basic math, 38% of 167 points is $64 an ounce, giving a possible pivot target of $1284 plus minus a few.
So bottom line? We remain bullish long term, short term we may have a minor wave 2 pullback to work off some of this 167 dollar rally in Gold, and 1284 is a 38% fib pivot and 1300 is traditional support.
May just need to take a rest here for a bit… otherwise we maintain for now our $1550 target for 2014.
226 gold

SP 500 at 13 day cycle turn ?

The SP 500 has rallied from 1267 to 1848 major 3 highs from Major 2 lows.

We had 1822-29 as MOST likely pivot highs for Major wave 3.

Now, we note that it’s common during this Major wave 3 pattern to have 13 trading day cycles of correction or consolidation, followed often by up legs.

We just completed a 13 trading day cycle in the SP 500 in a range bound area of trade.

Therefore, we are about to likely see a big move up or down within 1-2 trading days if we are right. Given that the market is extended and earnings season is just around the corner, we should see a sharp move here next week.

Since we are extended past the idea 1829 projection, we are on guard for market reversal and correction of 7-10%.

In the interim, over at the Active Trading Partners service we continue to out perform the stock market by a wide margin since April 1st

2013 by riding the trend and entering and exiting positions using our modeling techiques. At last count, 87% vs 18% for the SP 500 since April 2013 on an adjusted portfolio basis.

This also means we are keeping our eyes open for headwinds. If we can get past 1848 near term, then another extension in this Major 3 is upon us. 1823 is now KEY support on the downside.

Your two numbers to watch are 1849 and 1823…. the break of either will help us with our updated projections intermediately

sp 500 19

Jul 9th- New highs on the way as we suggested in late June

Wave 5 up has been in our forecast ever since we started correcting down below 1600, because wave 5 must follow wave 4, its in the Elliott Wave Bible. Wave 5 can be difficult to forecast, but we have said at a minimum it will test the all time highs at 1687-1689 pivots, which would be a shallow wave 5 rally from 1560. Today, we updated to our paying subscribers that we have 1768-1771 as the upper end of this rally and where the market likely would top out and begin a larger correction pattern, what we would call a “Major wave 4”. For now though, as we have been posting publicly on Stocktwits and Twitter, we see this wave up continuing higher to 1687-89 for starters,

and our subscribers will be updated daily as usual. Below is our ROADMAP for the SP 500 for the intermediate term: Join us for free reports here and there and or 33% off our daily report subscription (Covers SP 500 and GOLD) at www.markettrendforecast.com   79 sp 500