History Is Repeating Itself This January

The SPX and the Dow Jones have closed at new highs. The following closing prices: Dow Jones: 19910.93 and SPX at 2271.71. They have reached an extreme point. This is an extreme strong signal that price is most likely at a short-term high here. The NYSE composite reached a high at 11256 which could be a double top from 2015 highs.


I expect stocks to sell-off into December 19th or 20th followed by a strong rally into December 30, the last trading day of the year.
Bonds will now rally into December 19 or 20 high. After that expect again a sell-off in bonds again from Dec 20 to 28 – 30.


The market is expecting a rate hike by the FED, and consequently, the dollar would be expected to get strong. Based on the current market dynamic I can expect US Dollar to trade higher after FOMC rate decision for at least 1 more swing.


I see it likely that DXY Index (US DOLLAR) will gain after the FED announcement, these gains should be short lived. Gold will likely fall after the FED announcement. If this occurs, the level of $1100 – $1140 should hold the low on a closing price basis.


I indicate that Gold is nearing a long-term closing price low this week. The closing price of gold will be crucial, and I would not like a closing price above 102.56 (DX futures) for this short-term scenario to play out.




A close above oil at 52.59 will be a strong signal of further advancing prices to occur, which I can see occurring shortly.


After the correction in the SP500 the next leg higher towards 2300 -2360 should be reached, provided the pivot at 2189 low remains intact in over the next couple weeks.


John Winston
Chief Market Strategist

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