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Gold Still In Bear Cycle?

GOLD- Well, not a merry Christmas for Gold buyers just yet. We have said in our TMTF forecast service to watch 1190 as KEY support and 1241 would also need to be taken out on a closing basis before we could confirm a new uptrend in Gold and the end to the 5 wave bear cycle. Not quite yet, and in fact in my stock service we have avoided Gold stocks entirely even with the recent temptations to get long because Gold to us is key. If we are not over 1241 then we are not buyers of Gold equities, plain and simple. With 5000 stocks to choose from, why not stick with the sectors that are in the stronger uptrends and avoid those mired in the mud like Gold? For example you could be looking at Security stocks given all the cyber attacks worldwide that are only getting worse. Gold is money as we all know, but a downtrend is a downtrend. Trust what you see, not what you think for best results.

So right now the problem is we just gave up the 1190 support and the 30 week MA line on the weekly chart is your guide for key resistance to take out. We remain in the sidelines until its taken out. The chart below shows the blue line with the 30 week Moving average resistance, and you can use this same chart for the uptrend in the SP 500 which we have used recently for our subscribers as well. Don’t suffer from history bias and the hay days of Gold stocks and Gold, which ended in 2011…wait for the next Hay days to arrive, watch the 30 week moving average line before acting.

tmtf gold 1223

The SP 500 meanwhile is in wave 3 up from 1973 38% shallow wave 2 lows. That was a quick correction and the waves now are likely to be faster and shorter as we are in Primary wave 5 of this bull cycle, the last stages of the Bull if I’m right. 2131-2138 is your bogey ahead for first Fibonacci pivot resistance on the way to the 2181 target I had out over a month or so ago.

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Gold at Key Resistance

Back on September 3rd there were alot of Gold Bulls coming out of the woodwork. We had in fact publicly called for a low in late June here on TMTF for GOLD and we were right. Our Elliott Wave Analysis back then showed a bottom due to the 61% f ibonacci retracement of the rally from 300-1924, and the public sentiment and time cycles too.

When we hit the September 3rd window, Gold had already hit 1434 from 1181 lows we forecasted and was backing off a bit. We cautioned that GOLD was due for a pullback to as low as 1271-1277 in this article here.

We were right, as GOLD hit 1251 in fact, but mostly closing around the 1270 pivot before rallying again to the 1360 area. The Elliott Wave pattern suggested 1271 was a 61% fibonacci pullback area.

Now on Oct 29th as we near the end of the Month, we have GOLD at a crossroads if you will. We see a few numbers as key for direction.

1379— This must be taken out on a closing basis and if so, we have GOLD continuing to the 1540’s.

1309- If this is taken out on the downside, we think GOLD could drop all the way back to 1100 per ounce in early December to complete a 2 plus year down cycle.

Which one will be right? We do not know, but 50-50 on either side… which means over 1379 we would be long and under 1309 we would be short…. in the middle is a trading zone for only the swift…

The potential head and shoulders top below in the GLD ETF though does give one pause, so be careful out there until confirmed over 1379…

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